Saturday 27 December 2014

Rossleigh's Predictions For 2015 - The AIM Network

Rossleigh's Predictions For 2015 - The AIM Network



Rossleigh’s Predictions For 2015














Now, I know that many of you will be aware of the fact that I
predicted that I’d never be the sort of person who made predictions.
Particularly after Tony Abbott actually made it to Prime Minister.



However, I feel that, as nobody in the media ever seems to feel
embarrassed that their predictions have proven spectacularly wrong, I
might as compile my own prediction list, just so I can claim how
accurate I was if I’m right. If I’m wrong, I can just ignore it and
never mention it again, just like all those ads that were telling me how
to prepare for the stock market crash of 2013.



Ok, predictions for 2015! Here goes:


  1. Abbott will be asked if he thinks that he should appoint someone
    else as Minister for Women but he’ll assure us that he’s the only person
    in his government who trully “gets women” and understands the
    particular problems some of them have getting pregnant – like
    infertility or not having a man.
  2. There will speculation about a possible leadership challenge from Julie Bishop.
  3. Speculation will intensify when Bishop says categorically that she has no desire to be PM.
  4. Steve Bracks will make a bid for a seat in federal politics leading to speculation about him as a future PM.
  5. Christopher Pyne will suggest that the words “hypocrite” and “inconsistent” should be considered unParliamentary.
  6. Joe Hockey will claim wages being too high is the reason for high unemployment.#
  7. Joe Hockey will claim a lack of wages growth is the reason for his inability to get the  Budget back into surplus.#
  8. Sources “high up in the Liberal Party” will be critical of Tony
    Abbott, but tell everyone that he is safe because everyone is too scared
    of Peta Credlin to launch a challenge.
  9. David Leyonhjelm will announce that we use introduce a “user pays”
    system when voting in elections, before asserting that if everyone
    carried a gun, there’d be no need for elections.
  10. It will be discovered that Bronwyn Bishop is completely deaf in her
    left ear, and has only been ejecting Labor MPs after secret signals from
    the Government side.
  11. Scott Morrison will tell everyone that he has a soft spot for people
    who’ve been on benefits for more than a year. It will later be
    discovered that by “soft spot” he meant a boggy swamp where they could
    all be hidden.
  12. A scandal involving the misappropriation of funds by a prominent
    Liberal will be headed “Labor Fail To Notice Dishonesty” in the Murdoch
    Papers.
  13. Rebekah Brooks will be given a job in Australia leading to some
    nasty comments that a couple of hundred years ago it was the ones who
    were found guilty who were sent to the colonies.
  14. One of Abbott’s ministers will be praised as one of their best
    performers, only for it later to be discovered that he/she has been
    suffering from agoraphobia and hasn’t left their home for the past year.
  15. Barnaby Joyce will tell us that the Senate should be abolished as
    it’s unnecessary, a waste of money and a frustration for democratically
    elected government. When asked if felt this way when he was a senator,
    he’ll argue that back in those days the Senate was fulfilling the
    worthwhile role of stopping the Labor government from introducing an
    Emissions Trading Scheme.
  16. Some readers will attempt to use reason and logic to argue with one
    of the trolls making comments, when the person making the comment
    clearly has a limited relationship with the real world, so abstract
    concepts like coherent arguments will bounce off them like bullets off
    Superman’s chest. (Like Superman, these trolls will often have a secret
    identity and feel very sure of themselves, but unlike Superman, they’ll
    never actually accomplish anything apart from making people wonder
    whether the education system is failing or whether it’s just a few
    Queenslanders who’ve spent too long in the sun.)

That’s it. We’ll see how many I get right.


# Yes, I know this has already happened, I’m predicting it’ll happen again. And again. 



Tuesday 23 December 2014

THE YEAR THAT WAS - The AIM Network

THE YEAR THAT WAS - The AIM Network



THE YEAR THAT WAS














MY TOP 30 POLITICAL THOUGHTS FOR 2014


Author’s note: On Facebook, I post on a daily basis
continuous political commentary. Here is a selection. Please vote for
one of the following or nominate your own:



1 Scott Morrison has been promoted to Social
Services Minister. Start praying for pensioners, the disabled, those
looking for work etc. He demonised those seeking a better life. Now it’s
their turn.



2 The government’s own Climate Change Authority has
questioned the effectiveness of “Direct Action” saying the scheme won’t
deliver on long-standing emissions reduction targets.



Can’t be any more direct than that.


3 Has Australia ever elected a Prime Minister so
ignorant of technology, the environment and science? So oblivious of the
needs of women and so out of touch with a modern pluralist society.



4 The PM continues to tell the blatant and obnoxious
lie that households received $550 of their energy bill as a result of
the repeal of the carbon tax. Total bull. Now on top of that he sees it
as his greatest achievement for women. Words fail me.



5 Today the characteristic that most defines modern
Australia is “diversity”. In all its forms, together with
multiculturalism it defines us as a nation. People of my generation and
later should divest themselves of their old and inferred racist
superiority.



6 The murder of three people in Sydney was carried
out by a deranged, religious fanatic with a criminal record. It was not
by a terrorist organisation. People should keep this in mind.



7 Joe Hockey confirms bigger budget deficit; admits
Coalition failures in communicating policies. True, but they still
cannot bring themselves to admit it was unfair.



8 Hockey’s current budget dilemma reinforces how
stupid it was to curtail the price on carbon. However, he could easily
fix the problem by eliminating the 15% tax discount given to high income
earners. It is nothing more than a legal tax dodge supplemented by
low-income earners. It’s worth $12 billion plus PA. What about it Joe.
After that you could look at the billions given to mining companies in
subsidies.



9 Do you really think my chief of staff would be
under this kind of criticism if her name was Peter as opposed to Peta?”
Mr Abbott asked the ABC’s Lyndal Curtis.”



“Do you really think I would be attacking the Prime Minister in the
manner I do if her name was James and not Julia” John Lord thought.



“I think people need to take a long hard look at themselves with some of these criticisms” to quote the PM.


10 George Brandis wins a Walkley award for his “what is metadata” interview.


Well-deserved too.


11 The art of international diplomacy.


Our PM plans to “shirtfront” Vladimir Putin. Once a thug always a thug?


12 In an attempt at self-justification the PM is telling lies to defend lies already told. It never works.


13 It is said that truth is the first casualty of war. Unfortunately it is also the first causality of Australian politics.


14 My condolences to all those Coalition supporters
who were wetting themselves at the prospect of Julia Gillard slitting
her wrists at the Royal Commission. Particularly the Liberal National
Chat Page.



15 Ah the law is a strange thing. Ashby brings
charges against Slipper. After a long dalliance with legal argument
Ashby drops the case. Slipper is left with a huge legal bill and Ashby’s
lawyers say “No charge mate” There should be a law against it.



16 You would seriously have to wonder exactly what
brand of Christianity it is that Scot Morrison practices. Fancy drinking
champagne to celebrate sending refugees to one of the world’s poorest
and most corrupt nations.



17 The list of companies avoiding tax is again
headed by Murdoch. Others include Frank Lowy’s Westfield. It’s seems
that it’s ok for them to lean but we must all lift. Common Joe change
the law. Or is it the donations????

18 It would seem that the Abbott Government has given
up on their remaining budget cuts. And it should be remembered that they
were not opposed on the basis of prudence but unfairness.



19 The purpose of propaganda is to make you feel good about the wrongs being perpetrated on you.


20 The common good should be at the very heart of
every political philosophy””When talking about the cost of living I
think people get confused. There is a big difference between the cost of
living and cost of lifestyle. A recent survey found that 56% of those
complaining about the cost of living had taken an overseas trip in the
same year. And a further 52% had reduced dining out from three to two
times a week”



21 Australia does not, at this time, have a clearly articulated and legislated policy on climate change. Why.


22 Prime Minister Tony Abbott has denied he has
broken a pledge not to cut funding to the ABC and SBS, telling
Parliament his government had “fundamentally kept faith with the
Australian people”.



Lying is wrong but lying to defend a lie is appallingly immoral.


23 Yesterday’s attempt by the PM to legitimise lying is like saying we are no longer communicating in English.


24 The most simple way to turn the profession of politics on its head would be to demand they tell the truth.


25 It may be a good thing that some asylum seeker
children might now have a future but I find it chilling that Scott
Morrison has effectively used kids as hostages to pass his legislation.



26 Less informed voters unfortunately outnumber the
more politically aware. Therefore, conservatives feed them all the
bullshit they need. And the menu generally contains a fair portion of
untruths”



27 When asked about the Green Fund at a joint press
conference with President Hollande the PM said that we already had a
Direct Action fund of 2.5 Billion and a Clean Energy Finance Corp 10
Billion fund. The only thing wrong with the answer was that the first
won’t work and it is Government policy to abolish the second. His lying
knows no bounds.



28 What would an intelligent 18 year old about to vote for the first time think of this statement yesterday by our PM?


“As for Australia, I’m focusing not on what might happen in 16 years’
time, I’m focusing on what we’re doing now and we’re not talking, we’re
acting,”



29 The G20 meeting gave Prime Minister Tony Abbott a
powerful stage to articulate his vision for Australia. So he spoke
about his inability to pass his unfair budget. Now that’s statesmanship
for you



30 In 2015, 500 workers who benefited from Gillard’s
edict that non-faith-based workers be allowed in our schools will be
replaced by chaplains sourced predominantly from big Christian
organizations. This in a secular public school system is fundamentally
wrong be you religious or not.



A LATE ENTRY

My wife is upset that we didn’t get the carbon tax refund when every
other family did. I’m struggling to give her an explanation.



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Sunday 21 December 2014

The Liberals' review of workplace relations is critical to unmaking our social democracy | Adam Giles and Terri Butler

The Liberals' review of workplace relations is critical to unmaking our social democracy | Adam Giles and Terri Butler

The Liberals' review of workplace relations is critical to unmaking Australia's social democracy






The Productivity Commission’s review shouldn’t start with the ‘wages
explosion’ of conservative politicians’ imaginations, but with fairness












eric abetz



‘The mention of WorkChoices sends shivers down Liberals’ spines.’ Employment minister Eric Abetz. Photograph: AAP


What the Liberals really want for Christmas is a labour market overhaul, though they dare not say so aloud.


Since the Your Rights at Work campaign, most Liberals stay silent
about how they’d like to reconstruct industrial relations laws. The
mention of WorkChoices sends shivers down their spines.



That’s where the Productivity Commission comes in. To give themselves cover, the Liberals said that if elected they would ask the commission to review our workplace laws.


Advertisement
On
Friday, Joe Hockey finally delivered his terms of reference for the
review. They are so wide that everything that matters for everyone who
works for a living is up for grabs.



The review is critical to the Liberals’ scheme to remake Australia’s social compact. Alongside the Commission of Audit, the trade unions Royal Commission,
the tax white paper, and the reform of Federation white paper, it forms
part of their blueprint to unravel our social democracy.



Our present industrial relations laws and institutions promote
collective ahead of individual bargaining (which is consistent with our
international obligations), provide for freedom of association, and help
resolve disputes. It’s a better system than the Liberals’ last attempt,
as well as a fairer one.



Though you won’t hear the Liberals acknowledge it, labour
productivity has been rising faster under our Fair Work system than it
did under WorkChoices.



Conservatives have done nothing about industrial relations in the
past 20 years save to try to reduce unions’ power, undermine collective
bargaining, and erode its companion, the right to strike.



These are not abstract issues. Questions of power at work, job
security, and wages and conditions, affect governments, and they affect
households.



These questions affect governments in obvious ways. Income tax
revenue is related to incomes, and, as Myefo showed this week, bracket
creep (or the lack of it) affects family tax benefits and other
income-based transfers as well.



Advertisement
Industrial relations
settings that promote inequality are bad for our economy. In a
well-reported speech this year, International Monetary Fund managing
director Christine Lagarde spoke of the risks of excessive inequality.



She said it makes capitalism less inclusive, creates division, and
undermines democracy. The IMF’s research over the last 50 years “found
that more unequal countries tend to have lower and less durable economic
growth”.



Industrial relations settings that affect people’s ability to obtain a
living wage, decent conditions, and a secure job, also affect
households’ ability to manage their costs of living. Consumer group
Choice’s pulse survey – which looks at cost-of-living stress on
households – notes that people’s fear of losing their jobs contributes
to financial stress, as does whether they can “get by” on their income.



So, cost-of-living pressure comes not just from prices, but from insufficient income and job insecurity.


That’s one reason why it’s important to understand what’s happening
in the world of work. The Australian social compact is being eroded.
That key part of the social wage, Medicare, is under attack. We are in
the midst of the slowest wages growth since the wage price index began
in the 1990s.



Our minimum wage, as a proportion of our average wage, has been
falling. On its current trajectory, it could be where the US minimum
wage is now within a generation.



Australians should not be relaxed, or comfortable, about the state of
household incomes, or their prospects for curbing our nation’s growing
inequality.



The Productivity Commission’s starting point shouldn’t be the “wages
explosion” of conservative politicians’ imaginations. It should be how
the Fair Work system can help put people in a position to support
themselves, and their families, and how it can help promote growth
that’s more inclusive.



And the commission should, in meeting the requirement in the terms of
reference to consider “protections” for workers, offer advice about
dealing with rising job insecurity. While, no doubt, casual or temporary
work suits some, there are many more who want more work, more security,
or both. There’s a lot of people in our community whose working life is
a long way from a career, even though they may want that.



Instead, for people worried about losing their job, or about getting
enough hours, work is a source of anxiety: an uncertain means of staying
afloat. That so many lives are “on hold” is a tragedy and a waste.
Without security, people can’t make plans confidently, and so can’t
invest in their future.



Incomes, wealth, and curbing inequality affect the national interest.
If we want to ease financial pressures on households, let’s not forget
that the costs of living – the prices of the things that people need –
is only half the story.



In this review, the commission must think broadly, and about
fairness. Industrial relations settings should serve the interests of
working people, firms, and everyone who relies on Australia having a
strong economy.





Friday 19 December 2014

So much for Christmas cheer

So much for Christmas cheer








Under the Abbott government, Australia is now a cruel,
mercenary and pessimistic country. Author Jennifer Brassel reflects on
the battered psyche of the once 'Lucky Country' and urges us all to
embrace the true 'spirit of Christmas'.




I'M NOT religious and never have been. Christmas in our house was
about family getting together, even if only once a year, exchanging
gifts, laughter, and of course, eating and drinking too much.




In the world I grew up in the outer western suburbs of Sydney, we
didn’t have a lot but we still thought we were lucky. After all, all our
lives we were told that this was the ‘Lucky Country’ and we appreciated
the good fortune that such a credo stood for.




What the term ‘Lucky Country’ meant might have been different for
each person, but on the whole we thought nobody starved and there was
help available for everyone if they really needed it. And that we had
opportunities!




Each of us had an opportunity to make a great life. Naive perhaps,
but on the whole Australians were always generous people. It was country
I was proud of.




And indeed I was lucky. I got to attend university, the first in my
family to have that privilege, during the so-called ‘free university’
period that Whitlam began. I also had a lot of opportunities throughout
the years, as did other members of my family, and if we grabbed those
opportunities, worked hard, we made something of ourselves.




We could dare to dream of a rewarding and prosperous future.







(image courtesy of John Graham)





In a way, that is what makes me so sad about the Australia we now
live in. No longer can we say we’re the ‘Lucky Country’. In many ways
we’ve become a cruel country. A mercenary country. A pessimistic
country.




Recent government policy measures don’t draw on that reserve of
positive humanity that I grew up feeling. Most are downright mean. From
asylum seeker policy to education policy, to employment policy and
climate change denial, I see a country veering sharply away from
inclusiveness and opportunity, to a place of exclusion and lack of
innovative thinking.




Instead of sending a price signal to polluters to stop polluting and
halt the quickening march to planetary destruction, this government
wants to send price signals to the ill so they won’t seek help. Such a
short-sighted, skewed set of priorities simply boggles the mind and
certainly doesn’t pass any ‘Christmas Spirit’ test.




I remember some years ago, the then Opposition screeching at the
government that they are miserly and should raise the aged pension
immediately. Yet the current government is intent on reducing the
pension by stealth and eating away at that needed rise. Nope — no
Christmas cheer there either.




Perhaps the most saddening result of this government’s policies is
the lack of hope in our youth. Youth unemployment is growing
exponentially, and yet our government wants to save its dollars by
denying any unemployment benefit for the first six months.




I presume this is in the hope that family will pick up the slack, but
the hopelessness this existence creates will likely lead to
progressively more youth suicide. And at the same time the government is
closing down channels for training and education, locking in a
generation of under achievers and welfare recipients.








Fr Bower's sledging of Abbott's anti-humanitarian policies have gone viral thanks to Facebook & Twitter 



And now, the most recent ‘policy triumph’, the new asylum seeker laws
leave me sick to my stomach. Our current government is stacked with
religious types, from ‘happy clappers’ to Opus Dei yet NONE show a shred
of the humanity their doctrines espouse. The hypocrisy is staggering
and I thank the universe I’m an atheist and not subject to the
contradictory doctrine of absolution that allows these people in power
to set aside their consciences whenever they deem it convenient.








This asylum seekers policy comes at the end of some seven years
well-orchestrated use of media (I don’t say manipulation because I
believe it has been with most outlets’ acquiescence), designed to
stimulate all the worst aspects of human nature. Headlines in the
Murdoch press, especially, have played on bigotry, greed, and the
downright selfishness of pockets of our community. As well there has
been a deliberate censoring of any positive, progressive and innovative
information that would help the community to be better informed about
issues. Christmas cheer? Bah, humbug!




If I were religious, what would I pray
for this Christmas? I’d pray that the community opens its eyes to how
we’ve been manipulated. How our apathy has allowed black to become
white. I’d pray that we’d understand how destructive this government has
been to our way of life. That we’d find a way back to the principles
that made us the ‘Lucky Country’ so that maybe I could again be proud to
call Australia home.




She won’t be right, mate. No it won’t. Not until we all remember the true ‘spirit of Christmas’.



Jennifer blogs at www.jenniferbrassel.com







(image by John Graham)


Buy John Graham originals from IA's online store.








Creative Commons Licence

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Australia License

Wednesday 17 December 2014

Merry Christmas Gina and Rupert - The AIM Network

Merry Christmas Gina and Rupert - The AIM Network



Merry Christmas Gina and Rupert














If you go to Tony Abbott’s
facebook page, at time of writing, you will find six threads about the
Martin Place siege and one about the slaughter of innocent children in
Pakistan.  Four days after its release, you will not find any comment
about Hockey’s MYEFO.  That in itself should be cause for concern.



Tony Abbott has admitted he has little interest in the “dismal
science” of economics and it appears he is hoping that applies to the
rest of us.  He is sticking to his forte – death cults and
shirt-fronting.



Despite telling us all to carry on our lives as normal, he seems
determined to class the acts of one deranged individual as a terrorist
attack on home soil.



When Australians responded by showing solidarity with the Muslim
community through the “I’ll ride with you” campaign, the odious Miranda
Devine found a new target.



“Thus it was that on Monday, while real people were
suffering at the hands of an Islamic State-inspired terrorist in Martin
Place, hashtag activists sprang to the defence of theoretical victims of
an Islamophobia that wasn’t occurring.



The meaningless, narcissistic, one-sided nature of this “near silent
encounter” perfectly symbolises the leftist ­approach to Islamist
terrorism.



Denial, deflection, projection. They see themselves as morally
superior to the rest of Australia, which they imagine as a sea of
ignorant rednecks. In their eyes the threat is not terrorism but
Islamophobia.”

This view was endorsed by LNP member for Dawson, George Christensen who tweeted


“#illridewithyou is a typical pathetic left wing black
arm band brigade campaign, casting Aussies as racists who will endanger
Muslims”

The colourful characters who frequent Andrew Bolt‘s blog joined in with a barrage of hate.


Whilst Abbott, Devine, Bolt and Christensen continue to pander to the
minority of xenophobic racist rednecks, others have been commenting on
the policy direction of this government and none of it is good.



Firstly, Joe Hockey has cost us $28.6 billion in foregone revenue over the forward estimates through his own decisions.


Carbon Tax                                                         $12.8 billion


MRRT                                                                    $3.4 billion


FBT on cars                                                           $1.8 billion


Tax on super earnings                                          $313 million


Work-related self-education                                  $266.7 million


Closing corporate tax avoidance                           $775 million


RBA                                                                      $8.8 billion (classed as foregone dividends)


Add to that his spending on Direct Action, the “war on terror” at
home and abroad, and the extra spending on Operation Sovereign Borders
and PPL and we would go close to wiping out his deficit of over $40
billion.



So when you hear the girlinator Cormann talking about Layboor’s debt
and deficit disaster, understand you are being sold snake oil by a con
man.



Speaking of con men, the G20 leaders must be wondering about our
commitment to join the war on corporate tax avoidance which has been
shown to be yet another example of Joe “over my dead body” Hockey’s ‘tell em what they wanna hear’.



The head of the Australian Tax Office, Chris Jordan, has described a
tax lurk for multinational companies that is being retained by the
Abbott government as having been “abused” by foreign corporations at a
cost of “hundreds of millions of dollars” a year
to the Commonwealth but Hockey, following consultation with the big
four accountancy firms and the Corporate Tax Association, which
represents the biggest listed companies, decided not to tinker with
section 25-90 of the act.  And they had the hide to criticise Gillard
and Swan for caving in on the mining tax though that was one time I
found myself in agreement.



And they will have more pressure coming as the world insists that we take action on climate change.


During an appearance before a British parliamentary committee meeting
held early Wednesday morning Australian time, British Prime Minister David Cameron
was asked by an MP whether there was hope Australia would do more
because “the new Australian government is in denial” on the issue.



Mr Cameron did not disagree and told the hearing there was hope Australia would step up its efforts.


“Australia will respond to international pressure and do more on
climate change because it will not want to be seen as the “back
marker”.”



The new revised GP co-payment has also been blasted.


The Australian Medical Association (AMA) has expressed its formal
opposition to the Federal Government’s new co-payment model, labelling
it a “wrecking ball”.



“That this should be instituted and ready to go by January 19 is, I
think, absurd,” Associate Professor Owler said.  “Particularly when
there has been absolutely no consultation on this issue.”



The OECD
was also not impressed with Hockeynomics slamming his budget measures
and stating that ‘close monitoring’ was required mentioning everything
from changes to Newstart and pensions through to Direct Action,
deregulation of uni fees, and choice of infrastructure spending.  They
were particularly critical of superannuation tax concessions.  The
overall implication was “you haven’t thought these measures through”.



And as Abbott has his photo taken in front of lots of Christmas trees, presents are being delivered around the country.


Up to 100 ABC journalists have been told they will become redundant and ADF personnel will face rent increases as well as other charges for live in accommodation and meals.


Australia has transformed into the global Scrooge just in time for Christmas, with spending on foreign aid set to plunge compared to other wealthy industrial countries.


An analysis of Treasurer Joe Hockey’s $3.7 billion cut to the aid
budget announced on Monday – on top of the $7.6 billion cut in May –
reveals that Australia’s generosity towards the world’s poor will fall
to an all-time low.



Australia will soon devote a paltry 22¢ cents in every $100 of
national income to foreign aid – less than half the amount spent by the
Coalition government more than 40 years ago.



This is the news Tony Abbott and his band of elves don’t want you to
discuss as they take from the poorest in the world to give generously to
wealthy corporations and mining companies.  Gina and Rupert should be
well pleased.



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Sunday 14 December 2014

Some barnacles can't be removed in time for Christmas

Some barnacles can't be removed in time for Christmas









  article by Michelle Grattan

Some barnacles can’t be removed in time for Christmas









Treasurer Joe Hockey has sought to make a virtue of what will be a substantial worsening of the projected deficits.
AAP/Lukas Coch






Some barnacles are not, it seems, able to be removed –
certainly not in time for Christmas. As the political year grinds to its
end, the Prime Minister’s Office is under almost as much attack as that
of Kevin Rudd in 2010, and the Treasurer has a budget update heading in
the wrong direction.




The last Newspoll for 2014,
published in Monday’s Australian, shows the government trails 46-54% in
two-party terms, unchanged from a fortnight ago, despite Tony Abbott
backtracking on the Medicare co-payment and paid parental leave.




On Sunday, two senior ministers left Abbott swinging in the
controversy over the apparently excessive power held by his chief of
staff Peta Credlin.




Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull refused to be drawn, saying
he intended to remain “very taciturn” on the matter because it was not
productive to have the business of the PMO on the front pages.




Sensible, at one level. But Turnbull also said, in an interview on
Sky: “Any views I have on matters of that kind I’ll share with Tony
Abbott”. As the astute Turnbull would know, this left wide open the
possibility there could be views to share.




Earlier, deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop rejected out of hand Abbott’s Friday suggestion that sexism was behind attacks on Credlin.



In the Sunday Telegraph,
Liberal backbencher and one-time whip Warren Entsch had fuelled the
Credlin row, not only attacking Abbott’s sexism claim but also drawing
attention to the problem – complained about for years by some Liberals –
that having Credlin as the leader’s chief of staff while her husband
Brian Loughnane is Liberal federal director is too incestuous to make
for good politics.




Fresh from her Lima trip, Bishop gave Abbott a lesson in astute
presentation in a long television interview, coming across as polished,
reasonable and able to talk her way out of awkward spots, like the issue
of the PMO’s initial knockback of her travel to the climate conference.




“I just thought it was the wrong call, that’s all, and so I raised it
in cabinet, said ‘What does everybody think? Should I go?’” They had a
“good discussion” about it “and the PM said ‘yeah, I understand where
you are coming from’”.




Very cool. Gloved iron fist stuff. The PMO won’t be saying no to
Bishop again without an internal focus group on the likely consequences.




Although her actions have ventilated the discontent with Credlin,
Bishop vigorously defended the embattled chief of staff (“an essential
part of our team”, “a great support to the Prime Minister”) but bluntly
disagreed with her leader invoking the gender defence.




Abbott on Friday said Credlin’s treatment would be different if she
was P-E-T-E-R not P-E-T-A. Many Liberals winced, remembering Abbott’s
assault on Julia Gillard for, he said, playing the gender card.




Bishop said: “Well that’s not the way I would put it. I have been on
the record many times saying that I don’t view the world through a prism
of gender – I never have, I never will”. No-one could miss the
distancing, even though it came well-wrapped in general support and
advice that if people had a problem with the PMO they should talk to the
Prime Minister.




Bishop said she thought Abbott’s comment “is reflecting the Prime
Minister’s frustration that anonymous sources have been making
complaints about his chief of staff”.




If Abbott is frustrated, so are people in his government. Not only
are many of them critical of how the PMO is run, and fed up with seeing
Credlin get so much publicity, but now Abbott invites charges of
hypocrisy by suggesting sexism.




It’s not the only front where there is the whiff of hypocrisy. On the
eve of announcing worse-than-forecast budget numbers, Hockey on Sunday
insisted his revisions were not to be compared in any way with those
constantly made by Labor.




Hockey sought to make a virtue of what will be a substantial worsening of the projected deficits. A report in Monday’s Australian
says the update will show a A$40 billion blowout in the deficits which
were forecast at budget time to be worth $60 billion from this year
until 2018.




Hockey told reporters: “The government has decided to use the budget,
which is stronger than it was 12 months ago, as a shock absorber for
the biggest fall in our export prices in many years. If we don’t use the
budget as a shock absorber for this extraordinary fall in our terms of
trade, then Australians will lose jobs and we will lose our prosperity.”




Hockey said the government had “put in place the structural reforms
that have helped strengthen” the budget. Well, not exactly. Some of
these structural reforms have so far not been able to navigate
parliament.




The government tipped out to News Corp a list of some 175 bodies that
will be scrapped, absorbed into departments or merged for an estimated
saving of more than $500 million over the budget period.




They cover almost every field of public activity, from health and
education to animal welfare and biosecurity. Apart from savings and
efficiency, it’s also about ideology – smaller government and paring
back the public service.




You can also bet this exercise will produce a fair amount of of grief
for the government from many quarters – nasty little pin pricks for
ministers to deal with. The Vietnam veterans are already speaking out
over being caught up in the hits.




One thing though – the horrors of the budget update should take attention away from the Credlin story.


Tuesday 2 December 2014

Rundle: Napthine’s loss the beginning of the end for the Right –

Rundle: Napthine’s loss the beginning of the end for the Right –

Rundle: Napthine’s loss the beginning of the end for the Right









Denis Napthine’s government has been comprehensively booted out of Victoria in a historic loss for a one-term government. And Crikey’s writer-at-large says there is more to come.








There were probably better things to do in Atlantic City in
the early hours of Friday night/Saturday morning than watch the ABC feed
on bad wi-fi, but truth be told I couldn’t think of any. I could have
set the laptop up on the tables at the Trump Tower, or stage side at
Scores by the Boardwalk, but nothing could match the sheer deliciousness
of watching the Napthine government bubble down the drain of history.
From the early and unmistakable trends away from the government to the
strong showing by the Greens in Melbourne to the rapidly forming
certainty — that was exactly what you want from a vote count. None of
that heart-stopping coming-from-behind sudden-reversal stuff. This was
steady and remorseless erasure, exactly in line with the polls.



True, there was a bit of a wobble with The Age’s
Napthine endorsement, but that just turned out to be another instalment
in the world’s longest suicide note. Other than that, it was steady all
the way. The first one-term government in Victoria since 1955, the
pundits said, omitting to remark that that had occurred during a
wrenching split down the middle of the ALP, with Labor (anti-communist)
preferences going to the Libs. To try to find a common-or-garden
first-term defeat you’d have to go back I dunno how far into our
electoral history.



The significance of the victory can’t be understated for
Victorian politics. Given a fixed four-year term, by 2018 Labor will
have ruled Victoria for 24 of the last 36 years — 28 of the last 40, if,
as seems likely, the party wins a second term. That is domination of
politics over an era, with the consequent shaping of the political
culture. Whatever lasting depredations Jeff Kennett left us — a
Mordor-style casino “awarded” (with monopoly privileges!) to a Liberal
Party treasurer like the place was Louisiana, a needlessly vandalised
school and hospital system — or the attempt by Matthew Guy to kill the
livability of the city in a single term, they haven’t had lasting
purchase.



Thus, the history of the Victorian Liberal Party in the
post-Hamer period is a history of failure. Liberal parties, based on a
philosophy of individualism, do not weather opposition well — people
depart quickly for fresh opportunities rather than face the bitter task
of opposition. The Victorian Libs are engaged in a continuing struggle
between a Christian Right and the old business establishment party. If
the suburban god-botherers take control of the party, they could keep
the Libs out of power indefinitely.



Post-election analysis has pointed to the various national
and state-based factors responsible for the Napthine government’s
defeat, with the emphasis on the Abbott factor foremost. Yet the
Baillieu/Napthine government was in trouble from early on, long before
the shenanigans with Geoff Shaw started. And trying to attribute blame
to particular policies ignores a key fact: across the English-speaking
world, the Right is in trouble. When you put Victoria together with the
federal government and add in the Cameron government in the UK, three of
its major governments are facing a one-term proposition. The Newman
government in Queensland would be in the same boat, were it not for the
vast majority it gained on election. And in the US, the Right can only
win seats via gerrymandered Congressional votes — the Democrats win the
presidency and an overall majority in the raw vote for the House.



Everywhere, the Right is losing its legitimacy, and the
Victorian election can be seen as a small example of that. That lost
legitimacy is the key factor — without that loss, the Napthine
government might have received the benefit of the doubt traditionally
extended to a first-term government. The problem for the Right is not
the superficial screw-ups or the federal contamination effect — it’s
that the social-cultural ground is shifting beneath their feet in ways
that benefit the progressive centre.



That is especially so in a place like Victoria, dominated by
Melbourne, which is in turn coming to be dominated by knowledge,
science and culture industries. The growth of such industries creates a
growth in the numbers of a particular type of
professional — knowledge-oriented, reflexive, universalist and global.
They are, in some ways, a distinct social class in themselves, but they
can also be seen as a recomposition of the bourgeoisie. The old ranks
that made Victoria the jewel-in-the-crown of liberalism are thinned and
transformed by these new groups. They do not, of course, have the
numbers to change the political culture by themselves, but neither did
the old professional bourgeoisie. Rather, there is a sort of
“leadership” effect whereby the rising social power of a small class
will change the wider political culture more generally.



In Victoria, decades of this process have accumulated,
expressing itself in neighbourhood change, cultural change and social
activism, which makes the state inherently progressive. The Cain (Jr)
government of the ’80s nurtured much of this by creating a whole
quasi-state apparatus network of arts festivals, small group grants
funding, multicultural networks and the like, reaching far into every
aspect of social life. Kennett wisely decided not to attack this
structure en toto, merely to prune it back and redirect some of the
cultural activity away from the community and towards the commercial. A
decade later, that distinction has somewhat collapsed, and the
Cain-Kirner-Kennett model of Victoria continues to infuse society with a
progressivist, statist ideal of how society should work.



But to varying degrees that is happening everywhere. Every
four years, a cohort of voters from the old class division check out for
good, and a new cohort of voters turn 18, or equally importantly, pass
from youth into their 30s retaining much of the progressive political
thinking they had as teenagers or students. This is not because they
have become more idealistic. It is because the progressivist
message — that society should be steered by rational, socially just,
best practice, systems-oriented thinking, with universal equality of
gender, race, sexuality etc — is simply the base idea of their social
class and of the world they have started to build around them. The sad
fantasy of Bolt, Roskam, James Paterson et al — that if only the party
had stuck to a more hard-Right austere classical liberal message — does
not even begin to fit the current situation. It’s the endless nostalgic
reprise of Thatcherism — and of Kennett. It takes those
victories — which arose from the collapse of post-war social democracy
under the weight of its own contradictions — and mistakes their one-off,
system-rebooting moment for a general principle.



There’s never going to be a time from now on when it’s a
smart move to combine social conservatism with free-market liberalism.
Social conservatism doesn’t even fit the form of social life we now
have, the hybridity and fluidity that was edgy in the ’80s and ’90s and
is now central to the culture and the economy. As for the free-market
austerity, the swingeing cuts, the low-church moralising about earning
and saving, well, we are all not merely Keynesians, but also Rawlsians
now. It’s precisely because people want the dynamics of freer markets
that they also want the recuperative effects of the current
progressivist formulation of how economy, state and society works. The
Right can come up with whatever fantasy it wants — Chris Berg’s (the
Build-A-Bear classical liberal) assertion that fixed terms are to blame
is my favourite — but unless it begins to reflect on the composition of
its polticial philosophy, it’ll be one, two, many Victorias from here on
in.